2014, DMP, Zone 3 - Dogger Bank, Statistical Analysis of Marine Mammal Data (Teesside A and B)

Statistical analyses of Hi-Def aerial survey marine mammal observation survey data for the Dogger Bank development zone between 2009 and 2012. The scope of work requested from DMP Statistical Solutions UK Limited was a package of outputs that reflect the spatial distribution of several species/groups through time. The scope of species and species-groups were agreed with Forewind prior to analysis. The requirements were: 1. Annual relative abundance surfaces where possible for identified groups. 2. Relative and absolute abundance surfaces, over all surveys, for: a. Harbour porpoise. b. ‘Potential harbour porpoise’ grouping. c. Harbour porpoise & ‘Potential harbour porpoise’ grouping combined. d. White-beaked dolphin. e. Minke. f. Grey seal. The statistical models give expected density surfaces (numbers per square km) and upper and lower confidence bounds, potentially over a range of times e.g. monthly, seasonally, yearly. The models are based on a type of Generalized Additive Model (GAM) using radial basis functions with spatially adaptive knots and radius parameter (Walker et. al. 2011, Scott-Hayward et. al. (TBD)). The predictions in these files are given in a form adjusted for the following availability figure (absolute abundances) and a form UN-adjusted for availability (relative abundances).